2025 elections in Honduras: can the opposition curb the ruling party’s control?

The upcoming general elections in Honduras, set for November 30, 2025, are unfolding amidst a landscape of political unrest and scrutiny of institutions. The electoral scenario is characterized by the dominance of the Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE) over governmental bodies and an opposition that struggles to form a cohesive front. Indications of eroding democratic principles and tensions between major institutions, including the National Electoral Council and the Armed Forces, are causing apprehension regarding the transparency and legitimacy of the elections.

The political context in Honduras is characterized by opposition fragmentation, with the National Party and the Liberal Party in talks to form a coalition. However, internal differences and a lack of agreement on leadership and programs have complicated the formation of a solid alliance. Recent primary elections revealed logistical irregularities and low turnout, which increased doubts about the electoral system and fueled criticism of institutional management.

Oversight by institutions and conflicts during the voting procedure

The Nodos report notes that Honduran democracy is showing signs of pressure and that the ruling party is maintaining power through structural control of institutions. This situation has given rise to possible scenarios that include the continuation of the current model, institutional paralysis, or even a constitutional breakdown. Tensions between the National Electoral Council and the Armed Forces, which are responsible for electoral logistics, have raised concerns about the impartiality and efficiency of the process. In addition, the lack of electoral reforms and persistent political polarization increase the risk of post-election conflicts.

Different groups within civil society and the global community have urged the authorities to ensure a fair and participatory election process, upholding democratic values to maintain the nation’s political and social stability. The mix of a governing party with control over institutions, a fragmented opposition, and a disputed electoral system increases the risk of an extraordinary institutional crisis in Honduras.

Situations of opposition alliances and reactions from the governing party

In light of the present situation, the Liberal and National parties have initiated official discussions to investigate the potential for forming a coalition to oppose the LIBRE Party in the forthcoming elections. These discussions have covered strategies for electoral alliance, the allocation of candidates, and a shared platform focused on safeguarding democracy, the market-based economy, and adherence to the constitutional framework. The opposition parties highlight that the administration of Xiomara Castro and her advisor, Manuel Zelaya, have implemented measures aimed at centralizing authority, such as employing the Public Ministry to act against adversaries, endeavors to manipulate the CNE, and suggestions for constitutional amendments.

If the alliance comes to fruition, the two longstanding parties might represent over half of the voters, based on recent surveys. Both the social and economic sectors view this partnership as a feasible option to curb the advancement of the current administration. Meanwhile, the administration has minimized the significance of a potential opposition coalition, claiming it fails to present solutions for the nation. The electoral process in 2025 appears to be a decisive choice between maintaining the reform initiative led by LIBRE and reverting to a republican and pro-investment framework supported by a cohesive opposition. The result will shape the political and institutional trajectory of Honduras.